Date: January 12, 2026
A common adage in investing is that “money earned by luck will eventually be lost by skill.” This statement seems humorous but carries some truth, particularly as a reminder for investors facing losses. However, it is not entirely accurate.
While it is true that some money may be earned through luck—such as finding a coin on the street—over the long term, both profits and losses are within the bounds of one’s knowledge. Our understanding includes both value-creating insights and those that lead to losses.
From a temporal perspective, today’s “correct” investment logic could be invalid in a century, and even the most universally accepted principles today may be seen as outdated in a thousand years. The concepts of “right” and “wrong” can only be evaluated by the scale of time and space used to measure them.
In investing, it is important to set the time frame based on one’s career and knowledge, asking yourself: 30 years from now, what will be viewed as correct, and what will be viewed as incorrect? If your decisions are based solely on market fluctuations, perhaps it is time to reconsider the scale of time and space you are using to measure success.
Some outcomes simply require patience. Just as we don’t expect immediate rewards from planting seeds in spring, we must also understand that if we do not harvest when the time comes in autumn, there will be no return.
Indeed, much of our success in investing is based on luck. We often rely on fundamentals to guide our decisions, but the selling price is out of our control. Whether the price rises, how much it rises, and when we can realize a profit—these are all unpredictable factors that are, in essence, matters of luck.
For example, I once purchased shares of Galaxy Entertainment and sold them a year and a half later for a 100% return. The decision was based on reading a founder’s autobiography, not on some superior analysis or insight. I would not attribute this trade to my skill or knowledge; it was simply luck.
Regardless of how we enter the market, the fluctuations in prices are inherently random. If we profit, it is due to luck; if we lose, it is because of bad luck.
The idea that “skill will ultimately lose back the money” is, in a sense, ironic. Effort without a clear understanding is like planting flowers with no result, or sowing seeds with no yield. Without proper knowledge, working 12-hour days on investment will still lead to losses. If your understanding is flawed, no amount of effort will change the outcome. In such cases, hard work can actually become an effort to lose money.
Conclusion:
Investing requires more than just effort—it demands accurate, evolving knowledge and the ability to adapt over time. While luck may play a role in short-term success, long-term sustainable returns are driven by deep and evolving understanding.
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